The hottest one will enter the pattern of double r

Abstract: according to Mysteel data, as of January 19, the available days of imported ore inventory in steel mills were 34 days, up 5 days from 29 days on January 5. The 34 day inventory is the second highest in the past year, and the last inventory peak was 35 days on January 20, 2017

steel winter storage demand exploded last week, and the rebar period is now rising together. Driven by the continuous sharp rise of rebar, the 1805 contract of iron ore, the main contract, bottomed out and rebounded. It closed at 540.5 yuan/ton on Monday, up 15 yuan/ton from the low of 525.5 yuan/ton last Wednesday. We believe that iron ore will enter a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand. On the one hand, foreign ore shipments have entered the off-season, on the other hand, the peak of replenishment of steel mills has passed, and there is little room to continue replenishment in the later stage. Under the background of both supply and demand reduction, the contradiction of iron ore itself has gradually weakened. Last week, the start of winter storage demand stimulated the sharp rise in steel prices, which will have a certain pulling effect on iron ore. in the future, we should focus on cautious thinking

the raw material inventory of the steel plant rose to a high level

according to Mysteel data, as of January 19, the available days of imported ore inventory of the steel plant were 34 days, up 5 days from 29 days on January 5. The 34 day inventory is the second highest in the past year, and the last inventory peak was 35 days on January 20, 2017. From the perspective of absolute inventory, there is little room for steel mills to continue to replenish inventory in the later stage. Moreover, last week, spot transactions at iron ore ports continued to be weak, and steel mills' enthusiasm for procurement was significantly weakened, and they basically purchased on demand. Last week, the average daily iron ore dredging volume of 45 ports across the country was 2.5185 million tons, a new low since January 6 last year. The sharp drop in port dredging volume, on the one hand, shows that the increase of rain and snow in the North has an adverse impact on transportation, on the other hand, it also reflects that the enthusiasm of steel mills to replenish warehouses has decreased due to the micro heterogeneity of ceramic microstructure

it is expected that steel mills will have a small replenishment before the Spring Festival, but under the current high inventory level, even if the replenishment occurs during the Spring Festival, the range will not be too large. In other words, iron ore demand may face a marginal weakening pattern in the later stage

shipment volume of foreign mines 2. Speed revision of electronic universal testing machine: it continues to fall

as China's iron ore imports are mainly from Australia and Brazil, the southern hemisphere is in the high hurricane season in summer, and bad weather often affects port shipments. Moreover, from historical experience, the first quarter is generally the period when the delivery of foreign mines is low within the year. In the first two weeks of January, the total shipment volume of Australia and Brazil fell sharply. The weekly shipment volume on January 12 was only 18.84 million tons, down 8.44 million tons from 27.28 million tons in the week of December 29 last year. On January 11, due to the impact of tropical cyclones, the port of Hedland in Australia was forced to close for nearly 48 hours, which had a great impact on the shipment of Australian mines

from the perspective of global vanadium consumption of 82299 tons (V) in 2016 and the current foreign mine delivery plan, the estimated foreign mine delivery volume is relatively small from now to the end of February

steel traders' winter storage benefits and iron ore

the logic of replenishment of raw materials in steel mills has come to an end temporarily. With the outbreak of winter storage demand for timber in many parts of the country last week, the core logic of the industrial chain has shifted to timber. In the early stage, steel traders maintained an extremely cautious attitude, and some winter storage demand was excessively suppressed, which led to the concentrated outbreak of winter storage demand last week and stimulated the sharp rise in steel prices. As the winter storage demand continues to enter, the rise in steel prices will continue, which will also have a positive pulling effect on iron ore

therefore, there are few models of this kind of experimental machine below 10kN

in conclusion, we believe that iron ore will enter a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand. In terms of demand, the peak of replenishment of steel mills has passed, and the inventory in steel mills is close to the peak level in the past year, and there is little room to continue replenishment in the later stage; In terms of supply, foreign mine shipments have entered the off-season. Since January, shipments from Australia and Brazil have continued to decline. Under the background of both supply and demand decreasing, the contradiction of iron ore itself is gradually weakening, and the start of winter storage demand will stimulate the sharp rise of steel prices, which will also bring a certain pulling effect on iron ore. Therefore, in iron ore, we should focus on cautious thinking