Comments on chemical warehouse receipt of the hott

2022-08-24
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Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island exchange on October 28

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island exchange reported that methanol fell in a narrow range as a whole today. The settlement price of me0902 was 2034 yuan/ton, up -73 yuan/ton from yesterday's settlement. A total of 3351 batches (16755 tons) were traded throughout the day, a decrease of 9 from the previous trading day. 43 batches of tensioning wheel positions were adjusted accordingly (the lower shroud of the main body needs to be removed and stopped). The total order volume reached 8809 batches (44045 tons), a decrease of 213 batches from the previous trading day

methanol varieties:

the main 0902 varieties plummeted again today. The market was lightly closed after the limit fell at the beginning of the morning trading. During this period, the buyer's willingness to make a deal was low. The stop was opened at about 13:48 p.m., and the buyer's quotation became increasingly active, pushing the price to cover the gap in the short jump slightly, and finally closed at 2080

news side:

(1) external market: FOB U.S. Gulf cents/gallon fell 12 cents/gallon, FOB Rotterdam euros/ton flat

(2) domestic market: as of press time, the mainstream quotation in East China fell by 100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation in South China fell by 30 yuan/ton at the low end; The mainstream quotation in North China is yuan/ton, with the low end down 50 yuan/ton and the high end down 100 yuan/ton

(3) manufacturer/upstream dynamics:

today, some domestic methanol manufacturers in Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Hunan and Hubei are also important bases for selecting environmental and reliability experimental equipment. The quotation declines. As of October 24, the international coal price has fallen below the $100/ton mark, and there is a further downward trend. However, the domestic coal market did not follow the decline, but hovered high. Industry insiders believe that affected by the global economic downturn, the inflection point of China's domestic coal market may appear in the fourth quarter, because at present, the coal is high and unlimited, and the unsalable phenomenon is becoming more and more serious. NYMEX crude oil November futures closed down $0.93 at $63.22 a barrel overnight

(4) supply dynamics:

Hebei Zhengyuan methanol plant operates normally, with a daily output of tons. A set of methanol plant with an annual output of 80000 tons in Yima, Henan Province has been opened in succession at the "interior lifestyle" indoor supplies exhibition opened at Tokyo Youming International Convention and Exhibition Center on June 1, 2016. The remaining two sets of methanol plants with a total of 160000 tons/year are still under maintenance. Henan Pingmei Lantian methanol has a daily output of tons. A 100000 t/a unit located in Suiping is normal, and the natural gas methanol unit is also normal

technical aspect (continuous methanol):

(1) price trend: the market shows a downward trend in the medium term, and it belongs to the bottom shock trend in the short term

(2) K-line shape and volume price relationship: today, the bare headed and barefoot male line that jumped down was received, and the transaction was reduced, and the order volume was slightly reduced. It rebounded after hitting a new low today, but it still lacks capacity support

(3) moving average system (4,9,18), support pressure: from the daily chart, the moving average system is still in short position; On the 60 minute chart, the moving average system is short. Short term reference support 2023, pressure 2306, 2450

(4) index: on the daily chart, a small angle upward crossing is formed below the zero axis of MACD; KD index has no obvious signal, and the battery share of passenger cars will be concentrated to large battery enterprises. On the 60 minute chart, the MACD is bonded below the zero axis; KD index oversold areas tend to be glued. Overall, the tendency of indicators is not obvious

styrene varieties:

latest developments in the spot market: the intraday downturn trend of styrene in East China is difficult to change. At present, the mainstream price has fallen to about 5600 yuan, the high-end price has disappeared, the market transaction is difficult to change, and the transaction is difficult to reach. The Styrene Market in South China continued its downward trend during the session. At present, the market price is yuan/ton, the market panic is heavy, and the shipment mentality is obvious. (personal view, for reference only)

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