Comments on chemical warehouse receipt of the hott

2022-08-21
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Jinyin Island stock exchange chemical warehouse receipt on April 20

Jinyin Island stock exchange warehouse receipt reports universal experimental machine: methanol varieties closed slightly today. In the experiment, there were high requirements for the preparation and placement of samples. The settlement price of me0907 was 2296 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from yesterday's settlement. A total of 6060 batches (30300 tons) were traded throughout the day, 246 fewer than the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 13022 batches (65110 tons), 415 fewer than the previous trading day

methanol varieties:

the main force 0907 opened slightly lower at 2270 in the morning, surging higher at 2318 and fell back after encountering resistance; In the afternoon, the weakness did not change, and finally closed at 2275

Fundamentals:

(1) external quotation: on April 17, CFR China in Asia closed down $3/ton, CFR Southeast Asia closed up $1/ton, FOB Rotterdam in Europe closed up 4.5 euros/ton, and the spot price in the US Gulf rose 0.5 cents/gallon

(2) domestic spot: today, the quotations of some methanol manufacturers in Shandong and Anhui are reduced by yuan/ton. In terms of market, the mainstream price in East China fell by 20 yuan/ton at the low end of yuan/ton, the mainstream price in South China temporarily stabilized at yuan/ton, the mainstream price in North China temporarily stabilized at yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong fell by 20 yuan/ton at yuan/ton

(3) upstream dynamics:

the latest news, or due to the pressure caused by the continuous increase in low-cost coal production in surrounding areas and the expected increase in the resumption of production of small coal mines in Shanxi, the coal pit mouth price in Datong, Shanxi and other places generally fell by 30 to 50 yuan/ton last weekend. As of April 18, the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao Port rebounded to 3.7039 million tons, nearly 300000 tons higher than the 3.4268 million tons on April 13. NYMEX crude oil futures for may closed up $0.35 at $50.33 a barrel overnight, and closed at $49.53 a barrel at 15:00 today

(4) downstream dynamics:

in terms of dimethyl ether, Hebei Jinyuan was listed and stabilized at 3100 yuan/ton today. It is reported that due to the decline of liquefied gas in the region, which affected the sales atmosphere, the mainstream transactions of manufacturers temporarily fell to yuan/ton, but the manufacturers said that because the output was only about 20 tons, even if the sales were poor, they had no intention to continue to decline and adjust. Zhangjiagang Jiutai, which is only selling inventory, fell slightly by 20 yuan/ton today. At present, it is listed at 3080 yuan/ton and loaded at about 2980 yuan/ton

technical aspect (continuous methanol):

(1) price situation: the market rebounded in the medium term, fluctuated widely at the stage high in the short term, rose and fell today, and the center of gravity rose

(2) K-line shape and double volume: take out the barefoot Yang star with long upper shadow line, the trading volume decreases slightly, and the order volume decreases

(3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: according to the daily chart, the 5-day moving average crosses the 20-day moving average to form a dead fork; On the 30 minute chart, the moving average system is twisted. Short term reference support levels 2250 and 2210, pressure levels 2318 and 2330

(4) index tracking: on the daily chart, the MACD above the zero axis is in a short position; KD continued to decline, and the express line slightly penetrated into the oversold area. On the 30 minute diagram, MACD has signs below the zero axis that the contact point should be cleared and polished or a new reversing switch life and death fork should be replaced; KD overbought area goes down to the middle area after dead crossing

market analysis:

the quotation of the external market is relatively strong, and it is also necessary to allocate sufficient personnel for enterprises. The quotation of domestic methanol manufacturers has fallen steadily, and the spot market price has also fallen steadily. In terms of warehouse receipts, some bulls left the market after surging in early trading to suppress prices. After hours trading volume remained at a relatively low level, and the order volume continued to decrease; At the same time, the increase of warehouse receipts in the far month is still not obvious, and traders are cautious about the future market. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate, waiting for the guidance of the news. (personal view, for reference only)

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