Comments on plastic warehouse receipts of the hott

2022-08-19
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Comments on the plastic warehouse receipts of the treasure island exchange on March 20

the plastic warehouse receipts of the treasure island exchange reported that today, polypropylene and linear varieties rose as a whole. The settlement prices of pp0905 and ll0906 were 8467 yuan/ton and 8707 yuan/ton respectively, up 252 yuan/ton and 198 yuan/ton respectively compared with yesterday's settlement. A total of 2499 batches (12495 tons) were traded throughout the day, an increase of 65 batches compared with the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 2650 batches (13250 tons), a decrease of 111 batches compared with the previous trading day

upstream dynamics:

nymex4 crude oil futures reported $51.61 overnight, up $3.47. As of 15:00 on March 20, Beijing time, the latest report of April crude oil futures was $51.07, up $2.15. Ethylene monomer: FOB Korea reported US $608.0/ton, FOB Japan reported US $608.0/ton. Propylene monomer: FOB Korea reported $715/ton, up $10, FOB Japan reported $710.0/ton, up $10

polypropylene varieties:

the main pp0905 opened at the low point of 8300 on the day, and the opening price was driven by the purchase price to rise to 8500, and then it was sorted out in a narrow range between; In the afternoon, the strength in the morning continued, and the highest point of the day, 8510, fell back, and finally closed at 8456

Fundamentals:

(1) external market: CFR Far East homopolymer PP (USD/ton) rose by $5, FOB Middle East homopolymer PP (USD/ton) rose by $5, FD northwest Europe homopolymer PP (euro/ton) was flat, Fas Houston homopolymer PP (USD/ton) was flat

(2) domestic market: the copolymer resources in the PP market around Yanshan are relatively small, and the price is very chaotic. It is said that T30S is still reported at about 8200 yuan/ton, and the price continues to rise today. Tianjin's PP market resources continue to be small, and TIANLIAN releases little materials to the surrounding areas. However, due to the rapid increase in the early stage, the quotation in early trading today did not change much. Petrochemical price increases have the effect of stabilizing the mentality of businesses, and businesses generally believe that the market is optimistic in the short term

(3) manufacturer dynamics: PP pricing of most manufacturers continues to rise. Maoming Petrochemical PP plant line 1 is converted from T30S to EPS 30R, and line 2 is converted to n-z30s. The 200000 ton PP plant of Qingdao Petrochemical stopped for some reason on the 18th. At present, the start-up time is uncertain. It is said that there will be no wire drawing resources before the end of the month

technical aspects (polypropylene and propylene link 2):

(1) price situation: the intermediate trend of shock recovery, which is in the shock upward trend in the short term; Today, it opened high and went up sharply

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out a barefoot male line with slight shadow on it. The trading volume increased slightly and the order volume decreased

(3) moving average (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the moving average system maintains a long arrangement. On the 60 minute line, the 5-day moving average rose and closed again at the 5-unit moving average. Reference pressure 8600, 8800, support 8350, 8000

(4) indicators: MACD (26,12,9) shows a long shape above the zero axis on the daily line, and rises above the zero axis on the 60 minute line; KD index overbought area hovers; 60 minutes online, KD index express overbought area down

brief analysis and suggestions:

the spot market resources are limited, and the market price continues to rise, with the range of yuan/ton, due to the impact of the sharp rise of more than 7% of us oil overnight and the continued price hike of petrochemicals. Middlemen are a little reluctant to sell and do not actively release materials. The main force of jubing warehouse receipts rose strongly today, and the volume closed up. Technically, the price is back on the hourly average of 5 units, with more indicators and less positions. It is recommended to continue to hold multiple orders in the early stage and be vigilant against the risk of chasing up

linear varieties:

affected by the sharp rise in international crude oil, the main 0906 opened flat at 8600 yuan today, with a shock higher, up to 8790 yuan, and closed at 8720 yuan at the end of the day

Fundamentals:

(1) external market: CFR Far East LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton), FD northwest Europe LLDPE reported flat (euro/ton), Fas Houston LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton), FOB Middle East LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton)

(2) domestic market: the quotation around Yanshan continues to rise today, and most businesses postpone the quotation until next Monday. The latest, PetroChina 7042 reported 9100 yuan/ton

(3) manufacturer dynamics: up to now, the manufacturer's quotation has been increased by yuan/ton. Guangzhou Petrochemical LLDPE unit has a first-line production of 7042, and Maoming Petrochemical Unit has a full density conversion of 7042

technical aspect (linear continuous):

(1) price trend: it shows a downward trend in the medium term; The short-term volatility rose and continued to rise today

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out the small solid male line with shadow line. The trading volume was flat and the order volume decreased slightly

(3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the moving average system is arranged in multiple positions. On the 60 minute line, the multiple heads of the moving average system are arranged according to the plan. The reference pressures 8800 and 9100, and the lower supports 8450 and 82 can support the high-speed wire drawing 50 under the wet to dry (wod) and wet to wet (wow) processes of the optical fiber drawing tower

(4) indicators: on the daily line, MACD indicators are close to the zero axis; KD index goes up to overbought areas. A. A. C. polymers on the 60 minute online pointed out that the MACD index continued to rise above the zero axis; KD index high adhesion

brief analysis and suggestions:

today's linear warehouse receipts surged, closing positive for the fifth consecutive day. The upper pressure level of 8800 continues to be effective, and the quotation in North China market continues to rise, and the transaction is relatively flat. International crude oil closed at $51, breaking through the early dollar shock range for the first time. However, whether it can form an effective breakthrough needs to be verified in the future market. On the whole, linear warehouse receipts may fluctuate and consolidate around 8800 in the short term, and the load with a maximum wear scar diameter of 4mm is taken as the burning point. In terms of operation, short-term intraday trading is recommended. (personal view, for reference only)

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