Comments on chemical warehouse receipt of the hott

2022-08-17
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On March 25, the chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange commented on the report of the warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange: methanol varieties closed down in a narrow range as a whole today. The settlement price of me0907 is 223, which is the advantage of FRP Bridge Deck. It is 5 yuan/ton, up -15 yuan/ton from yesterday's settlement. A total of 6946 batches (34730 tons) were traded throughout the day, 4546 batches less than the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 13914 batches (69570 tons), 219 batches less than the previous trading day

methanol varieties:

the main force 0907 opened slightly higher with a daily low of 2220 in the morning, followed by shocks, and the last segment rose to 2250 settlement yesterday, which was suppressed; The market continued to weaken in the afternoon and ended at 2220, ending at 2225

Fundamentals:

(1) external quotation: on March 24, CFR China in Asia closed stable, CFR Southeast Asia closed stable, FOB Rotterdam in Europe closed stable, and the spot price in the US Gulf was stable

(2) domestic spot: today, the quotation of domestic methanol manufacturers is generally stable, with an increase of yuan/ton in Lunan, Shandong and 50 yuan/ton in Fengxi, Shanxi. In terms of market, the mainstream price in East China fell by 20 yuan/ton at yuan/ton, while the mainstream price in South China rose by 5 yuan/ton, including 0 yuan/ton for the annual output of 40000 tons of polyformaldehyde and 150000 tons of caproic acid projects, and the mainstream price in North China rose by 50 yuan/ton at the low end of yuan/ton

(3) upstream dynamics:

data show that as of March 24, Qinhuangdao's coal inventory was 5.79 million tons, down nearly 1million tons from 6.72 million tons two weeks ago (March 10), a decrease of 14%. Meanwhile, in the past two weeks, the total coal inventory of Guangzhou port group fell from 2.1 million tons on March 11 to 1.94 million tons on March 23, a decrease of about 8%. NYMEX crude oil futures for may closed up $0.18 at $53.98 a barrel overnight, and closed at $53.20 a barrel at 15:00 today

(4) downstream dynamics:

in terms of formaldehyde, the mainstream market in Shandong market today is temporarily stable at yuan/ton, of which the central region is at the high end, the mainstream is about yuan/ton, the western region is at the low end, and the Southern mainstream is about yuan/ton; The overall commencement rate is about 40%. In terms of dimethyl ether, Shandong Jiutai's price is still stable at 3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction in the market rumors area is yuan/ton, and the daily output of the manufacturer is about 300 tons

technical aspects (continuous methanol):

(1) price situation: the market rebounded in the medium-term shock, and the short organizing committee arranged a preferential accommodation period. Today, it fluctuated narrowly at the low level of yesterday's trading range

(2) K-line shape and double volume: take out the barefoot small male line with shadow line, the trading volume is greatly reduced, and the order volume is slightly reduced

(3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: according to the daily chart, the moving average system is still in a long line, with intraday upside and 5-day moving average losing, closing below it; On the 30 minute chart, the average system is twisted in the air, and the 20 unit average constitutes the short-term pressure. The short-term reference support levels are 2200 and 2150, and the pressure levels are 2250 and 2300

(4) index tracking: on the daily chart, the two lines of MACD are multi headed above the zero axis; KD overbought area shows signs of deadlock. On the 30 minute chart, MACD is in a short position, and the fast line is slightly below the zero axis; KD showed signs of deadlock in the middle region

brief analysis:

the quotation of individual manufacturers on the spot side of methanol increased slightly, and the market prices in various regions rose and fell. In terms of warehouse receipts, the main force fluctuated in a narrow range today in July, with a sharp reduction in trading volume, and the order volume decreased slightly and remained at the level of breaking 2200 on March 19. According to the map of me0907, today's trading range coincides with the downward gap on February 18 with the continuous formation of customers' word-of-mouth. In addition, the closing price of warehouse receipts in July fell to 275 today compared with the premium in May. (personal view, for reference only)

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