Comments on plastic warehouse receipts of the hott

2022-08-16
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Comments on the plastic warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on September 22

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that today, polypropylene and linear varieties rose sharply across the board, including pp0811 and pp0812. The settlement prices of pp0811 and ll0811 were 11696 and 12060 yuan/ton respectively, up or down 325 and 220 yuan/ton respectively compared with yesterday's settlement. A total of 70 batches (350 tons) were traded throughout the day, 2518 fewer than the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 3021 batches (15105 tons), an increase of 17 batches compared with the previous trading day

upstream dynamics:

nymex10 crude oil futures closed up $6.67 at $104.55 a barrel overnight, and as of 16:00 on September 22, Beijing time, November crude oil futures rose $1.68 to $104.43. Ethylene monomer: FOB Korea reported 1120.0 yuan/ton, FOB Japan reported 1120.0 yuan/ton. Propylene monomer: FOB Korea reported 1101.0 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan, FOB Japan reported 1099.0 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan

polypropylene variety:

the main force 0811 opened sharply in the morning with the lowest price of 11600 that day, and quickly closed at the daily limit of 11712 until the close

news surface:

(1) external market: CFR Far East homopolymer PP fell by $10 (US dollar/ton), FOB Middle East homopolymer PP fell by $10 (US dollar/ton), FD northwest Europe homopolymer PP fell by $10 (euro/ton), and Fas Houston homopolymer PP fell by $10 (US dollar/ton)

(2) domestic market: the market quotation around Yanshan was mainly stable this morning. Due to the sharp rise of international crude oil over the weekend, the mentality was slightly boosted. Middlemen are mainly concerned about the stability of the market this week, and some people suspend their quotation and wait for the settlement of petrochemical. At present, the local T30S is reported at 11500 yuan/ton, and it is said that there are still lower ones

(3) manufacturer's quotation/device dynamics: Shaoxing Sanyuan PP device stopped due to failure on September 19 and started today. TIANLIAN PP will continue to be listed, and T30S will be listed at 11900 yuan/ton. The PP device is planned to be shut down for overhaul for 20 days on the 28th. Due to insufficient propylene, the old PP plant of Lanzhou Petrochemical has been shut down since June 10, and it has not been determined when to restart the bonding strength - the stress required to separate two metal blocks bonded with adhesive (tensile force divided by bonding area); The new PP plant was shut down on September 9 due to cracking of cracking furnace tube, which is expected to take a long time to overhaul

technical aspects (polypropylene and polypropylene):

(1) price situation: moderate trend of volatile decline, with signs of stopping the decline in the short term; Today's sharp rebound was closed at the daily limit

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: jump up and take out the bareheaded and barefoot Yang line. Due to the price limit, the transaction volume and order volume were basically flat

(3) moving average (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the moving average system is still in short position, and the price jumps strongly above the 5-day moving average. In the short term, the 10 day moving average may be tested; On the 60 minute line, the 5-unit moving average crosses the 10 unit moving average to form a golden fork. Reference pressure 11900, 12100, support 11600, 11300

(4) indicators: MACD (26,12,9) is still below the zero axis, diff rises slightly, and turns into a long form below the zero axis on the 60 minute line; KD (9,3,3) has a golden fork below 20 in the oversold area

brief analysis and suggestions:

for the U.S. government's rescue plan, the peripheral markets generally echo the surge. Driven by the macro market, PP jumped sharply and opened higher today, and was strongly closed to the daily limit, with a large volume of transactions. From a technical point of view, PP is often used to compare and identify the quality and performance of chemical heat treatment and surface heat treatment parts such as carburization and surface quenching, and there is also a need for oversold rebound. Today, it broke through the short-term trend line of this round of decline, and the height and duration of the rebound still need to be matched by fundamentals. Empty orders leave the site temporarily

linear varieties:

the main force 0811 opened high in the morning with the lowest point of the day of 12000, and then rose sharply. However, due to the lack of selling support, transactions were rare; There was no deal in the afternoon, and it finally closed at 12150

news surface:

(1) external market: CFR Far East LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton), FD northwest Europe LLDPE reported flat (euro/ton), Fas Houston LLDPE reported $150 (USD/ton), FOB Middle East LLDPE reported 1 imported high reliability compressor (USD/ton) flat

(2) domestic market: inspired by the sharp rebound of crude oil, the quotation in some parts of North China rebounded slightly over the weekend, and the domestic linear returned to the 12000 yuan/ton level. Merchants around Yanshan suspended the quotation this morning, looking forward to the follow-up price policy of Sinopec/PetroChina. Due to the long-term weakness of the market, traders are anxious for a turnaround in the market, and the wait-and-see mood is more serious at the time of the continuous rebound of crude oil. This morning, most traders in Tianjin watched the settlement of petrochemicals, with few quotations. PetroChina 7042 was generally reported to about 11850 yuan/ton last weekend

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: Sinopec Beijing linear continues to be listed, and the surrounding quotations continue to fall. At the weekend, Qilu Chemical City's quotation rebounded slightly, driven by the sharp rise in crude oil, with 7042 tax-free declaration of 11350 yuan/ton. Guangzhou Petrochemical LLDPE plant produces 7042 and 2001. Qilu Petrochemical LLDPE unit produces 7042

technical aspect (linear connection):

(1) price situation: medium level trend of shock decline, short-term shock downward; Stop falling and rebound today

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out a male line with bare head and bare feet jumping upward. It tends to change months, with a sharp reduction in trading volume and a basically flat order volume

(3) moving average system (5,10,20,30), support pressure: on the daily line, the moving average system is in the form of short positions. On the 60 minute line, the 5-day and 10 day moving average is in the form of a golden fork. The reference pressure is around 12500 and the support is around 11890

(4) indicators: on the daily line, MACD indicators began to rise below the zero axis of the fast line; KD index has a golden fork in oversold areas. On the 60 minute line, the MACD index forms a golden fork below the zero axis

brief analysis and suggestions:

technically, the market rebounded sharply after repeatedly hitting new lows, but there is no quantitative support, and the reversal signal is not clear. In terms of spot goods, the quotation rebounded slightly and the market transaction was light. It is suggested to hold empty orders and reduce positions. (personal view, for reference only)

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