Comments on plastic warehouse receipts of the hott

2022-08-08
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Comments on the plastic warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on October 28

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that today, polypropylene varieties fell by the limit across the board, and linear varieties fell by the limit as a whole. The settlement prices of pp0812 and ll0812 were 7174 and 8062 yuan/ton respectively, up -221 and -249 yuan/ton respectively compared with yesterday's settlement. A total of 6 batches (30 tons) were traded throughout the day, an increase of 3 batches compared with the previous trading day, with a total order volume of 2275 batches (11375 tons), and a decrease of 4 batches compared with the previous trading day, such as Beijing Olympic venues and surrounding regional heating projects

upstream dynamics:

nymex12 crude oil futures closed down $0.93 at $63.22 a barrel overnight. As of 16:00 on October 28, Beijing time, December crude oil futures rose $0.40 to $63.62. Ethylene monomer: FOB Korea reported $505.0/ton, FOB Japan reported $505.0/ton. Propylene monomer: FOB Korea reported 470.0 US dollars/ton, FOB Japan reported 460.0 US dollars/ton

polypropylene variety:

main force 0812 closed the market with an unlimited limit of 7174 throughout the day

news surface:

(1) external market: CFR Far East homopolymer PP was flat (US dollar/ton), FOB Middle East homopolymer PP was flat (US dollar/ton), FD northwest Europe homopolymer PP was flat (euro/ton), and Fas Houston homopolymer PP was down $66/ton

(2) domestic market: the drawing price of PP market around Yanshan continues to fall today, and it is said that T30S quotation of real estate such as Daqing is about yuan/ton. There are not many PP market resources in Tianjin, and TIANLIAN has not been started normally, but there are still resources in inventory. Due to poor transactions, middlemen are still relatively bearish on the future market. At present, merchants are waiting for the introduction of Sinopec's settlement price. The local T30S has a price of 7500 yuan/ton, which can be negotiated. It is said that the actual transaction can still be discounted

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: Sinopec Beijing PP additives often used in the early stage include: plasticizers, stabilizers, lubricants, fillers, colorants, solvents and other settlement prices. It is said that T30S will settle 8000 yuan/ton before the 23rd, and the specific price needs attention. Sinopec Sales Shanghai Branch PP issued the latest settlement price. It is reported that the daily average settlement price of poly drawing is yuan/ton, and the daily settlement price is yuan/ton. Today, the listing price of PetroChina Huadong PP was generally reduced by 800 yuan/ton, and Daqing T30S was suspended by 8000 yuan/ton. The listing price of PetroChina Huanan PP was lowered today, and the latest drawing T30S was listed at 7750 yuan/ton

technical aspects (polypropylene and polypropylene company 1):

(1) price trend: the medium-term trend of volatile decline, and the short-term decline will not decrease; Today, it continued to close the limit

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: jump down sharply and take in the "one" line. There is no volume of transactions, and the order volume is basically the same

(3) moving average (5,10,20), support pressure: daily line, 60 minute line, moving average system is still in short position. The reference pressure is 7395 and 7623, and there is no reference support position below

(4) indicators: MACD (26,12,9) is still under the zero axis, showing a short position; KD (9,3,3) bottom passivation

brief analysis and suggestions:

in the past two months, crude oil has been falling endlessly, and the expectation of macroeconomic deterioration is increasing. Jubing warehouse receipts are subject to the double negative of declining costs and sluggish demand, and it is difficult to be optimistic in the future. Today, the trading center will take risk control measures to transfer some positions in the month after the closing. Pay attention to the new market opening guidance price and the rise and fall limit announced before the market opens tomorrow

linear varieties:

there was no deal in the morning trading of 0812, the main force today. In the afternoon trading, it jumped to the low opening limit with 8062, and finally closed at the limit price

message side:

(1) external market: CFR Far East LLDPE was flat (USD/ton), FD northwest Europe LLDPE fell by 12 euros (euro/ton), and Fas Houston LLDPE was more accurate at 1; Low density and light weight (USD/ton) fell by $22, and FOB Middle East LLDPE was flat (USD/ton)

(2) domestic market: today, the quotation around Yanshan continues to decline, and most traders do not have much resources in their hands. In the face of the continuous decline, the market will not issue a bill for the time being. Wait and see the petrochemical price, 7042 yuan/ton. The futures market fell again, the spot trading was almost stagnant, and some quotations continued to decline, with PetroChina 7042 reporting 8200 yuan/ton and 7260 yuan/ton

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: the listing of PetroChina linear continues to decline. It is expected that the short-term market will continue to be depressed and downward. Yangzi Petrochemical linear production 7042, low-voltage device line a production 5000S, line B production 5000S, line C production 4803t. Guangzhou Petrochemical LLDPE plant produces 7042 and 2001

technical aspect (linear connection)

(1) price trend: the medium-term trend of volatile decline, which remains weak in the short term. Speed up the exploration today

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: today, take out a "one" line that jumps down. The transaction volume and order volume are flat

products produced are used for packaging in beverage, food and medicine markets (3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the moving average system maintains a short position. The 60 minute line is also short. The reference pressure is 8280 and 8062, and there is no reference support position below

(4) index: on the daily line, the MACD index is empty below the zero axis. KD index hovers in oversold areas. On the 60 minute line, MACD index adheres below the zero axis; KD index hovers in oversold areas

brief analysis and suggestions:

affected by the continuous sharp decline of international crude oil, the main LLDPE warehouse orders have been traded sparsely for two consecutive days today. In terms of spot goods, market quotations continue to fall, businesses are pessimistic, and overall transactions are scarce. It is expected that the short-term market will continue to be depressed and downward. It is recommended to continue to hold empty orders in the early stage. (personal view, for reference only)

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